Kamis, 13 Desember 2012

statistik



CORRELATION

1.1 Introduction

 
Correlation is often used as a descriptive tool in non-experimental research. We say that two measures are      correlated if they have something in common. The intensity of the correlation is expressed by a number called the coefficient of correlation which is almost always denoted by the letter r. Although usually called the Pearson coefficient of correlation, it was first introduced by Galton (in a famous paper published in 1886) and later formalized by Karl Pearson (1896) and then by Fisher (1935). In this chapter we explain this coefficient, its rationale, and computation.

The main idea behind the coefficient of correlation is to compute an index which reflects how much two series of measurements are related to each other. For convenience, this coefficient will take values from −1 to +1 (inclusive). Avalue of 0 indicates that the two series of measurements have nothingin common. A value of +1 says that the two series of measurements are measuring the same thing (e.g.we have measured the height of a group of persons with metric and  imperial1 units). A value of −1 says that the two measurements are measuring the samething but one measurement varies inversely to the other (e.g. one variable measure show rich you are, and the other one measures how poor you are: so the less rich you are, the poorer you are. Both scales are measuring the same financial status but with ‘opposite’ points of view).

1.2 Types of Correlation
There are two important types of correlation. They are (1) Positive and negative correlation and (2) Linear and Non – Linear correlation.
1.2.1   Positive and Negative Correlation
If the values of the two variables deviate in the same direction i.e. if an increase (or decrease) in the values of one variable results, on an average, in a corresponding increase (or decrease) in the values of the other variable the correlation is said to be positive.
Some examples of series of positive correlation are:
(i)         Heights and weights; 
(ii)        Household income and expenditure;
(iii)       Price and supply of commodities;
(iv)       Amount of rainfall and yield of crops.
Correlation between two variables is said to be negative or inverse if the variables deviate in opposite direction. That is, if the increase in the variables deviate in opposite direction. That is, if increase (or decrease) in the values of one variable results on an average, in corresponding decrease (or increase) in the values of other variable.
Some examples of series of negative correlation are
 (i)         Volume and pressure of perfect gas; 
(ii)        Current and resistance [keeping the voltage constant]
(iii)       Price and demand of goods.

1.2.2 Graphs of Positive and Negative correlation:
Suppose we are given sets of data relating to heights and weights of students in a class. They can be plotted on the coordinate plane using x – axis to represent heights and y – axis to represent weights. The different graphs shown below illustrate the different types of correlations.
Note: 
        i.            If the points are very close to each other, a fairly good amount of correlation can be expected between the two variables. On the other hand if they are widely scattered a poor correlation can be expected between them.
      ii.            If the points are scattered and they reveal no upward or downward trend  as  in  the  case  of  (d)  then  we  say  the  variables  are uncorrelated.
    iii.            If there is an upward trend rising from the lower left hand corner and going upward to the upper right hand corner, the correlation obtained from the graph is said to be positive. Also, if there is a downward trend from the upper left hand corner the correlation obtained is said to be negative. 
    iv.            The  graphs  shown  above  are  generally  termed  as scatter diagrams.

1.3 Correlation Coefficient
The General Idea
Correlation coefficients (denoted r) are statistics that quantify the relation between X and Y in unit-free terms. When all points of a scatter plot fall directly on a line with an upward incline, r = +1; When all points fall directly on a downward incline, r = !1.
Such perfect correlation is seldom encountered. We still need to measure correlational strength, –defined as the degree to which data point adhere to an imaginary trend line passing through the “scatter cloud.” Strong correlations are associated with scatter clouds that adhere closely to the imaginary trend line. Weak correlations are associated with scatter clouds that adhere marginally to the trend line.

The closer r is to +1, the stronger the positive correlation. The closer r is to !1, the stronger the negative correlation. Examples of strong and weak correlations are shown below. Note: Correlational strength can not be quantified visually. It is too subjective and is easily influenced by axis-scaling. The eye is not a good judge of correlational strength.

1.4 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
To calculate a correlation coefficient, you normally need three different sums of squares (SS). The sum of squares for variable X, the sum of square for variable Y, and the sum of the cross-product of XY.


1.5 Linear and Non – Linear Correlation
The correlation between two variables is said to be linear if the change of one unit in one variable result in the corresponding change in the other variable over the entire range of values.
In general two variables x and y are said to be linearly related, if there exists a relationship of the form

where ‘a’ and ‘b’ are real numbers. This is nothing but a straight line when plotted on a graph sheet with different values of x and y and for constant values of a and b. Such relations generally occur in physical sciences but are rarely encountered in economic and social sciences.
The relationship between two variables is said to be non – linear if corresponding to a unit change in one variable, the other variable does not change at a constant rate but changes at a fluctuating rate. In such cases, if the data is plotted on a graph sheet we will not get a straight line curve.